May brought us a fresh spring awakening, with positive returns for both stocks and bonds. Despite the continued uncertainty around rate cuts, investors reacted positively to the continued positive jobs environment, inflation not accelerating (although not down to the Fed’s desired territory) and robust consumer and positive GDP data.
May 2024 Investment Performance Compared v. Year-to-Date Performance
| Equities | May 2024 (%) | Year to Date 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| All Cap U.S. Stocks |
|
|
| Russell 3000 | 4.7 | 10.1 |
| Growth | 6 | 12.7 |
| Value | 3.3 | 7.2 |
| Large Cap U.S. Stocks |
|
|
| S&P 500® | 5 | 11.3 |
|
Russell 1000 |
4.7 | 10.6 |
| Growth | 6 | 13.1 |
| Value | 3.2 | 7.6 |
|
Mid Cap U.S. Stocks |
|
|
|
S&P 400 |
4.4 | 7.9 |
|
Russell Midcap |
2.9 | 5.7 |
| Growth | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Value | 3.6 | 6.2 |
| Small Cap U.S. Stocks |
|
|
| S&P 600 | 5 | 1.6 |
| Russell 2000 | 5 | 2.7 |
| Growth | 5.4 | 4.6 |
| Value | 4.7 | 0.8 |
| International |
|
|
| MSCI EAFE NR (USD) | 3.9 | 7.1 |
| MSCI EAFE NR (LOC) | 2.5 | 11.7 |
| MSCI EM NR (USD) | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| MSCI EM NR (LOC) | 0.5 | 6.5 |
| Fixed Income | May 2024 (%) | Year to Date 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg |
|
|
| U.S. Aggregate | 1.7 | -1.6 |
| U.S. Treasury: 1-3 Year | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| U.S. Treasury | 1.5 | -1.9 |
| U.S. Treasury Long | 2.9 | -6.6 |
| U.S. TIPS | 1.7 | -0.1 |
| U.S. Credit: 1-3 Year | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| U.S. Intermediate Credit | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| U.S. Credit | 1.8 | -1.1 |
| U.S. Intermediate G/C | 1.2 | -0.3 |
| U.S. Govt/Credit | 1.6 | -1.5 |
| U.S. Govt/Credit Long | 2.8 | -5.1 |
| U.S. MBS | 2 | -2.1 |
| U.S. Corp High Yield | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Global Aggregate (USD) | 1.3 | -3.3 |
| Emerging Markets (USD) | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Morningstar/LSTA |
|
|
| Leveraged Loan | 0.9 | 4 |
| Alternatives | May 2024 | Year to Date 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg Commodity | 1.8 | 6.8 |
| S&P GSCI | -1.9 | 9.5 |
Sources: Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg, MSCI and Russell
The S&P indices are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC and/or its affiliates (collectively, “S&P Dow Jones”) and has been licensed for use by Segal Marco Advisors. ©2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC a division of S&P Global Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Please see www.spdji.com for additional information about trademarks and limitations of liability.
Equity markets:
Equity markets rebounded from the lows of April returning 5 percent for the S&P 500 in the month and bringing year to date returns back into double digits (11.1 percent). Small capitalization stocks were also positive for the month, with the Russell 2000 also up 5 percent and bringing year-to-date returns back into positive territory at 2.7 percent. Non-U.S. equities were also positive in the month, with both the EAFE (3.9 percent) and Emerging Markets returns (0.6 percent) adding to positive year-to-date returns.
Other market fundamentals are also providing a healthy backdrop for stocks with dividend growth running at an 8 percent year-over-year pace (above 5-yr avg of 5 percent and 10-year of 6.6 percent). In addition, announced stock buybacks in Q1 were $180 billion.
Fixed income:
Longer-dated fixed-income assets dominated a positive return environment for fixed income assets in the month of May. The Barclay’s Aggregate returned 1.7 percent and the long duration 30-year Treasury had the highest return in the month at 2.9 percent. Year-to-date fixed income is still negative with the Aggregate down -1.6 percent year to date. While we are not at the low of yields from earlier in the year, the positive returns in the month were a welcome respite.
Credit-related bonds, both investment grade and high yield, were positive in the month, and new issue activity in the fixed income remains robust, with repricings, refinancings and amend-to-extend transactions underpinning market activity.
Issuance in the U.S. Bond Markets
Sources: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)
Looking ahead:
First quarter of the 2024 earnings season is behind us, and while it was dominated by mega-cap tech names that provided the largest increases, generally, earnings were positive. Year-over-year earnings are flat, with the exception of large technology known as “MAGMAN”, i.e., Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon and Nvidia. But, inclusive of the first quarter of 2024, earnings have now been positive over the last three quarters.
Earnings are an essential component of valuation metrics and looking at the chart below, note the above average valuation of the S&P 500, due in large part to the large technology companies mentioned above, and with the positive performance of the non-U.S. markets, they too are no longer “cheap.” Smaller capitalization stocks are, however, still inexpensive versus historical norms.
Price to Earnings
Source: FactSet as of 5/31/2024. P/E ratios are forward 12 months. Data begins 12/31/1999
Enjoy the beginnings of warm summer nights; and for those of you in cicada territory, the “soothing” noise of the 17-year awakening.
See more insights
March 2024 Market Review and a Look Ahead
February 2024 Market Review and a Look Ahead
April 2024 Update on Markets
The information and opinions herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This article and the data and analysis herein is intended for general education only and not as investment advice. It is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the needs of any particular investor. On all matters involving legal interpretations and regulatory issues, investors should consult legal counsel.
